2009 could offer good deals

On the surface, it would seem as though cruise travelers have smooth sailing ahead. There are more ships than ever — including a 5,400-passenger Royal Caribbean ship to be launched this year — sailing to more regions of the world. And, with the exception of a pesky stretch of the Somalia coast, travel by sea is probably safer than it has ever been.

Yet with the economy doing an epic crash-and-burn, many would-be passengers are wondering if they can afford a cruise.

Here's a look at how the cruise year is shaping up:

Bad economy, good prices?

There's no place like a home port

U.S. river cruises dwindle

Last-minute deals

European cruises

Fuel charges up in smoke

Still some aloha

Size matters

Bad economy, good prices?

Expecting that economic fears will turn passengers into landlubbers, cruise lines are "just trying to sell everything they can," says Carolyn Spencer Brown, editor in chief for the online site Cruise Critic. "High summer in Alaska, high summer in Europe? I'd buy them now." Some basic cruise fares are being discounted, but do beware of the extras.

There's no place like a home port

Even with the euro sinking to reasonable levels, expect a big return to cruising from domestic ports. Even the North American lines that put their best ships in the booming Mediterranean and Baltic are moving many of them back (to cruise to Mexico and especially the Caribbean). "If (passengers) can cut the experience and expense of flying, they'll do it, " said Brown.

U.S. river cruises dwindle

While home ports have many advantages — and Seattle is a base for Alaska cruises — the Northwest has lost some locally based cruises with the shutdown of Majestic America Lines in December. Less than two years after the Seattle-based company tried to corner the market on U.S. river paddle-wheelers, the company closed because of financial problems and will offer no cruises this year. That sidelines the Columbia Queen (which sailed out of Portland on Columbia River cruises), American Queen, Delta Queen, Mississippi Queen and the Empress of the North (which sailed in Alaska) to languish. The loss is a big blow to U.S. river cruising, says Paul Motter, editor of the Web site Cruise Mates.

Last-minute deals

Last-minute cruise deals are being offered again due to the poor economy. Last-minute in the cruise world means about a month before a sailing date. If you're flexible on dates, and not too picky about cabins, said Brown, you should be able to find deep discounts.

European cruises

Don't expect big-ship sailing in Europe to die, however, even with the tight economy. The cruise lines want to move cabins and the euro is far more reasonable, so what's the X factor? "The big question is, what will airfare to Europe be like next summer?" says Motter. "Cruises could be reasonable (fuel is cheaper, the dollar is stronger), but air is the question."

Fuel charges up in smoke

The fuel surcharges introduced last year when oil was more expensive per ounce than French perfume have all but disappeared. On average, that's $140 per couple back in your pocket. "So cruises are now much cheaper," says Motter. "But prices will rise to compensate for lost surcharges as much as the lines can and not kill business." Also, the lines reserve the right to reinstate the fuel surcharge.